While recent financial data both in the United States and abroad has cast a shadow over the upcoming holiday season, a just released forecast by Deloitte is providing some better cheer.  Despite the slow U.S. economic recovery, it says U.S. retailers should expect small gains in 2011 holiday sales.

According to Deloitte’s Retail & Distribution practice, total holiday sales to reach between $873 and $877 billion, representing a 2.5 percent to 3 percent increase in November through January holiday sales, over last season. This excludes motor vehicles and gasoline sales and still is lower than last year’s 5.9 percent gain.

Helping generate the sales increase, Deloitte says, will be a 14 percent forecast increase in non-store sales.  These include online buying, catalogs and interactive television. 

“Double-digit growth in the non-store channel has given the industry a major boost, and retailers that put online channels to work for their physical storefronts have the advantage,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. Retail & Distribution sector leader. “The brick-and-mortar store is still central to the shopper experience.  Retailers that integrate the power of the sensory experience in-store with relevant, timely information via their websites and mobile applications are well-positioned to lead the way this holiday season.”

 Paul noted that while economic events have the potential to soften consumer spending this season, businesses are already operating at lean and efficient levels and positioning themselves to weather a period of slow growth.  However, Paul advises retailers to be prepared with contingency plans.  ”Retailers need to be nimble enough to quickly adapt and adjust their inventory, assortment, pricing and promotional strategies when consumer demand fluctuates.”

 Paul adds, “As many holiday shoppers will be researching online and on their smartphones both before and during their trips to the store, retailers need to be sure their digital strategy is both flexible and focuses on a personalized experience this season.  Store associates can be a critical element to any digital strategy to complete and ‘up-sell’ once the customer comes into the store.  It’s important that they are well-versed on the latest products, promotions, pricing and competitor offerings that consumers receive through online and mobile channels.”